Private equity has regained momentum, but the old tailwinds are gone.

PE firms entered 2026 on firmer footing than in recent years: dealmaking activity rebounded strongly in 2025, with buyout deal value and exit activity climbing to near‑record levels, according to Bain’s Global Private Equity Report 2026. 

At the same time, Bain reported that GPs are currently sitting on a staggering $3.2 trillion in unsold assets, many of which were bought between 2019–2021 and nearing the end of their traditional five-year hold cycles. 

McKinsey’s Global Private Markets Report 2026 also shows that while buyout and growth deals larger than $500 million hit a record annual value in 2025, return measures such as pooled internal rates of return remain modest compared with public markets: top‑quartile global buyout returns averaged roughly 8 percent IRR, less than half of comparable public equity benchmarks. Additionally, DPI was at a historical low as a share of assets under management in 2025, signaling slower exits and extended holding periods. Consequently, liquidity dynamics have shifted, and investors have lost patience with paper gains: McKinsey reported that LPs now rank DPI 2.5x more important than they did just three years ago.

These trends paint a coherent picture. While private equity activity has rebounded from prior years’ slowdowns, the old drivers of returns are no longer sufficient on their own. The macro conditions that once drove returns (low interest rates, expanding multiples, and abundant leverage) have diminished.

Without these tailwinds — amid extended holding periods and increasing LP scrutiny — PE is entering a new competitive era that requires smarter decisions about buying and building rather than financial engineering alone. 

Why quantitative insights are no longer optional.

To stay ahead in rough terrain, firms need sharper, statistically significant signals from the market. We sat down with Eric Ma, Principal at Riverwood Capital, a US-based PE firm that targets technology industry disruptors in need of capital and expertise to scale globally. 

He shared why quantitative surveys have moved from a "check-the-box" due diligence item to a core strategic weapon for both dealmakers and operators.

1. Seeing through the hype.

In fast-moving markets saturated with AI claims and disruptive narratives, the cost of chasing a bad deal is ruinous. “The value of a survey far exceeds the actual cost that you would incur from making the wrong decision on a bad deal,” said Ma.

“Quantitative surveys provide a level of confidence that qualitative expert calls alone cannot. I don't think there's any better means to aggregate a ton of market touchpoints to build confidence in your thesis.” — Eric Ma

2. Winning 12-bidder wars with a contrarian edge.

When a dozen credible firms are chasing the same high-growth asset, they all arrive at the same conclusions on the financial side.

“Anyone can run the analytics and formulate a similar forecast. When twelve firms bid on the same A-grade asset, the real differentiation lies in having a contrarian perspective on what the company could actually become.” — Eric Ma

Quantitative surveys allow dealmakers to find the "angle" others missed: perhaps a misunderstood tech adoption trend or a specific regulatory dynamic. 

Firstly, such data provides the internal conviction to pay a higher price because you’ve validated a thesis. Secondly, it wins the target companies' confidence by demonstrating that you have a distinct data-backed plan for their success.

3. Integrating value creation & exit readiness from day one.

Operational execution is more important than ever, and insights on roadmap priorities, pricing posture, and GTM strategy can’t just live in the due diligence folder.

“The conviction you build at entry should fuel decisions post-acquisition. The survey insights from our due diligence roll straight into the Day 1 debrief.” — Eric Ma

Survey insights from DD can address the post-close lag: the weeks that operating teams spend figuring out what to do after the wires have cleared. Many portcos lack the internal resources to run quantitative research themselves, so this kind of hard data provides genuine value as teams shift into growth mode.

Takeaways

The shift toward operational alpha means the most successful PE firms are those that are prioritizing market clarity over financial engineering alone. The lesson is clear: data drives an edge.

In the past, B2B and B2C surveys were a defensive DD task to check if anything was broken. In 2026, they are a proactive tool that fuels a competitive advantage pre- and post-acquisition.